I love the length of the football season because betting is easier. You only have to change a fantasy line up 17 times as opposed to baseball which is every day from the beginning of April to late September. Also, because the players have one game a week, you can sometimes have a player that puts up Hall of Fame numbers every week. You don't see Albert Pujols going 4/5 every night with 3 home runs and 5 RBIs, but you could have Peyton Manning throw for more than 300 yards and 2 touchdowns every week.
I also love it because it's easy to pick winners of each match up only 17 times, which I'm currently doing. Last week I went 9-7, which isn't bad. I figure if my record is good enough to take the NFC West Division, then I'm in good standing (pun intended).
This week sets me up for at least the same amount of wins. There are 9 games that are pretty much a lock, making week 4 a suicide poll participant's dream. Let's start off with the easy wins.
NYJ @ BUF - NYJ wins. Buffalo is notorious for giving the Jets trouble, but these aren't your ordinary Gang Green team. Last year the two teams split the series. Don't expect the same this year, unless half the team takes a vacation on Revis Island.
CIN @ CLE - CIN wins. The Battle of Ohio. While this match up is always fun to watch, don't expect much. Cleveland is 0-3 and Cincy is a strong 2-1 after a great win over Baltimore and cake walk over Carolina.
DEN @ TEN - TEN wins. I know that some people will argue that this isn't an easy pick. I'm going to say it is. Denver has yet to prove they're a contender, especially with a loss to Jacksonville and they're now without their starting running back. Tennessee's running back just got back into the swing of things with another 100+ yards rushing performance and Vince Young looks to be ready to take the helm once again.
CAR @ NO - NO wins. The Saints may not have running back Pierre Thomas due to any injury but that's not really a problem considering they're last in the NFL in rushing yards. No problem in Louisiana, the Panthers might as well stay home.
DET @ GB - DET wins. HAHAHAHA just kidding. GB wins.
SF @ ATL - ATL wins. The Falcons are coming off a couple huge wins, including a division win over the Saints. Look for another high scoring game in Atlanta.
HOU @ OAK - HOU wins. Even if Oakland were facing a high school team, I wouldn't pick them to win. The Patriots get Oakland's first round pick in next years draft. The worse they do the better it is for New England. COME ON TOP 5 PICK!!
IND @ JAC - IND wins. These picks are actually easier done than said.
ARI @ SD - SD wins. San Diego has been waiting for a game where they can explode on offense. I expect this game to be much like Arizona's 41-7 loss against Atlanta. The Chargers get their starting left tackle back and star rookie running back. All will be well in San Diego.
That's it for the easy pickems... now time to do some work.
SEA @ STL - SEA wins. I'm not sure how Seattle has two wins but they do. And they're a lot better than the Rams, who might be playing without Stephen Jackson this week. Now St. Louis has no running game and has to rely on rookie sensation Sam Bradford. Say it with me now... anagonnahappen!
BAL @ PIT - BAL wins. I love this match up. I may be quick to take the Ravens in this one, especially with Ray Rice an uncertain for game time, but I can't help it. I didn't think the Steelers would be 3-0 with a chance to go 4-0 before their starting quarterback sets foot on the field. This is my SLEEPER PICK OF THE WEEK. (just started that right now) While the Steelers' defense is better than Baltimore, and the offense proved it can put up numbers, even with Charlie Batch behind center, I'm still going with my gut here and picking the Ravens.
WAS @ PHI - PHI wins. This game could be the greatest game of Donovan McNabb's career. He get's traded in the off season, but not just to any team. He's traded to the division rival. He gets to face his old team, old coach, old back up quarterback, and none the less, in PHILLY. However, he doesn't really have that great of a team to back him up. He's only thrown for two touchdowns and his running game is... feeeh. Meanwhile, Michael Vick has two extraordinary wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Redskins' secondary isn't good enough to hold them down, nor are the line backers quick enough to catch Vick outside the pocket.
CHI @ NYG - NYG wins. Here ya go Giants fans. I'm backing you up this one time. I don't think da-Bears are that good, even if they are 3-0. This may be a great opportunity for the Giants to get back on track. New York is a passing team facing a bad passing defense. While da-Bears are a good passing team facing a good passing defense. For the first time in my life, I'm actually rooting for Eli to pick up a win. Don't expect this everyweek.
NE @ MIA - NE wins. Go ahead and say it. A biased pick. Maybe so but... let's analyze this further. This game is not going to be a defensive show down. I think that's pretty obvious. The Patriots have scored an average of 30 points a game and the Dolphins have scored an average of 17 points a game, with one of those games coming against the Buffalo Bills. What you're proposing is that the Dolphins need to stop the likes of Tom Brady passing to Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Julian Edelman, and two BEASTLY tight ends. I just don't see that happening; just like I don't see the Patriots defense stopping the rushing game of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. It's not news that New England is horrible at running the ball as well as stopping the run.
I expect this game to be a huge high scoring game, but don't expect the Dolphins to keep up.
So there's my picks for week 5. With the beginning of bye weeks occurring this week, I only have 14 games to choose from, but I'm at least predicting a 9 win week. Time will tell for the other match ups.
Also if you have any comments, questions, or opinions, please feel free to add below or you can email me at paulsnyderemail@gmail.com.
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